If all announced projects are successfully implemented, PVC production in Central Asian countries could increase 12-fold by 2035, reaching 600,000 tons. At the same time, demand is projected to be around 400,000 tons, according to a forecast presented by Lola Oggrel, Project Manager at the Analytical Center for Energy Sector Research.

Source: Rupec

From Net Importer to Net Exporter

For Central Asia to transition from a net importer to a net exporter of PVC, challenges related to sales and distribution will need to be addressed. According to Oggrel, Europe could be a potential export market, as it is expected to face a 1.3 million-ton PVC deficit by 2035.

Currently, the only PVC producer in Central Asia is Navoiazot (Uzbekistan). The company launched a 100,000-ton per year suspension PVC production facility in late 2019, as part of a larger PVC, caustic soda, and methanol production complex. The project was carried out in collaboration with a consortium of Chinese companies.

At the time of launch, Uzbekistan's domestic PVC demand was estimated at 95,000 tons, while the overall demand in Central Asia stood at 192,000 tons. Navoiazot was expected to fully meet the needs of the domestic market, but actual production has not exceeded 50,000 tons per year, with imports still covering 60-65% of demand.

PVC Consumption Trends in Central Asia

Between 2010 and 2023, PVC consumption in Central Asia increased 3.3 times—from 82,000 tons to 270,000 tons. In contrast, Russia’s demand remained stable, reflecting the more mature state of its market.

Following the launch of local production, Uzbekistan significantly expanded its PVC processing capacity, with demand rising by 45.6% between 2019 and 2023. Kazakhstan also saw substantial growth, with consumption increasing by 40% over the same period. Tajikistan recorded the most dynamic growth, doubling its PVC consumption in just four years, although its share of total regional consumption remains modest at 5%.

Uzbekistan is the largest PVC consumer in Central Asia, accounting for more than half of the region’s total consumption, followed by Kazakhstan with a 31% share.

PVC Imports and New Production Projects

In 2023, Central Asia’s PVC imports exceeded 220,000 tons. Of this, 160,000 tons came from China, while Russia supplied 45,000 tons, with its share steadily increasing. In 2023, Russia accounted for 20% of Central Asia’s PVC imports, up from 7% in 2019, while China’s share declined from 82% to 72%.

Several new PVC production projects are currently being developed in Central Asia. There are three projects in various stages of implementation—two in Uzbekistan and one in Kazakhstan—with a combined annual capacity of 540,000 tons. These projects are being carried out in partnership with foreign companies, including Chinese and Russian firms.

Since most Central Asian countries are landlocked, with the exception of access to the Caspian Sea, export logistics will largely depend on international partners, including Russian firms. Chinese companies are involved in the projects primarily as engineering contractors and licensors.