Kazakhstan has reaffirmed its commitment to the OPEC+ agreement on oil production levels while also planning to increase production by 2025. This reflects the country's growing influence in the international cartel, despite not being a member.

Source: timesca

The government acknowledged that production is expected to rise in 2024 due to the expansion of the Tengiz field, emphasizing the importance of adhering to OPEC+ obligations. Kazakhstan also pledged to engage in negotiations within the framework of international law.

Similar commitments were made in April 2024, even as the nation exceeded its March production quota by 131,000 barrels per day.

Projected Production Growth

Despite these commitments, Kazakhstan aims to produce over 96.2 million tons of oil and gas condensate by 2025, marking a 9.7% increase from the previous year's total of 87.7 million tons. Energy Minister Satkaliyev forecasts that the Atyrau Region will produce 57.4 million tons (+9.1%), the Mangistau Region will contribute 17.8 million tons (+7.2%), and the West Kazakhstan Region will yield 12.9 million tons (+4.9%). However, the Aktobe Region is anticipated to see a slight decline, with production expected at 4.7 million tons (-2.1%).

Industry experts highlight that this decision has caused tensions with OPEC+ members, particularly Saudi Arabia. Oleg Chervinsky, a columnist for the Oil and Gas of Kazakhstan. Facts and Comments Telegram channel, points out that the production increase is largely driven by the Tengiz field's expansion, set to begin operations in the second quarter of 2025, with investments totaling $533 million. Additionally, $144 million is being invested in the Karachaganak project, while work continues on the offshore Kalamkas-Sea-Khazar initiative.

Kazakhstan’s Rising Influence

According to Reuters, Kazakhstan's surplus production has significantly impacted OPEC+'s decision-making processes. Three sources within the cartel indicated that several OPEC+ members, including Saudi Arabia, expressed dissatisfaction over Kazakhstan's record production levels and urged the country to address the overproduction issue. However, as Chervinsky points out, the cartel lacks direct enforcement power over Kazakhstan, which remains committed to its plan of nearly a 10% production increase by 2025.

By influencing OPEC+ decisions while maintaining production independence, Kazakhstan is positioning itself as a more significant player in the global oil market.