The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has released updated estimates regarding the production of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), highlighting the following points.

Source: IATA

In 2024, SAF production is anticipated to reach 1 million tonnes (equivalent to 1.3 billion liters), which is double the 0.5 million tonnes (600 million liters) produced in 2023. SAF represented 0.3% of global jet fuel production and 11% of overall renewable fuel output.

These figures are notably lower than earlier predictions, which estimated SAF production in 2024 to be 1.5 million tonnes (1.9 billion liters). This discrepancy is attributed to delays in key SAF production facilities in the US, which have shifted their production ramp-up to the first half of 2025.

SAF volumes are increasing, but disappointingly slowly. Governments are sending mixed signals to oil companies which continue to receive subsidies for their exploration and production of fossil oil and gas. And investors in new generation fuel producers seem to be waiting for guarantees of easy money before going full throttle. With airlines, the core of the value chain, earning just a 3.6% net margin, profitability expectations for SAF investors need to be slow and steady, not fast and furious. But make no mistake that airlines are eager to buy SAF and there is money to be made by investors and companies who see the long-term future of decarbonization. Governments can accelerate progress by winding down fossil fuel production subsidies and replacing them with strategic production incentives and clear policies supporting a future built on renewable energies, including SAF.

By 2025, SAF production is projected to reach 2.1 million tonnes (2.7 billion liters), accounting for 0.7% of total jet fuel production and 13% of the global renewable fuel capacity.

Aviation's Role in the Global Energy Transition

To achieve net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050, IATA's analysis indicates that between 3,000 and over 6,500 new renewable fuel plants will be necessary. These facilities will also produce renewable diesel and fuels for various other industries.

The airline industry’s decarbonization must be seen as part of the global energy transition, not compartmentalized as a transport issue. That’s because solving the energy transition challenge for aviation will also benefit the wider economy, as renewable fuel refineries will produce a broad range of fuels used by other industries, and only a minor share will be SAF, used by airlines. We need the whole world to produce as much renewable energy as possible for everybody. Airlines simply want to access their fair share of that output.

The average annual capital expenditure required to establish these new plants over the next 30 years is estimated at around $128 billion per year, in a best-case scenario. Notably, this figure is significantly lower than the total investment in the solar and wind energy markets, which averaged $280 billion annually between 2004 and 2022.